Voters across the country cast ballots to elect a governor in Kentucky, decide legislative control in Virginia and determine whether the Ohio state constitution should be changed to enshrine the right to have an abortion.
These were all races and issues that faith voters cared about, even though off-year elections get less attention in the U.S. than presidential and midterm congressional ones. Nonetheless, both Republicans and Democrats are using this week’s results to give them an inkling of trends that could affect next year’s races, including the 2024 presidential election.
The vote comes as former President Donald Trump has pulled ahead of President Joe Biden in five swing states with a year left until the election. When Biden won in 2020, he had pitched himself as the man who could defeat then-President Trump.
In the six battleground states where the 2024 election is likely to be decided, Biden only leads in Wisconsin, according to a new New York Times and Siena College poll. But the White House saw Tuesday’s results as a promising sign heading into next year.
Trump, who is mired in a series of criminal and civil court cases, is up in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Michigan — potential victories that would hand him the 270 electoral votes needed for him to return to the White House.
Despite the polling, it was a very good night for Democrats across several states and a number of issues, including the expansion of abortion rights in states Trump had previously won and that many religious conservatives saw as their home turf.
Here are five things we learned from this year’s results and what they mean to faith voters:
1. Abortion access in Ohio
Ohioans voted on a referendum to protect abortion access until 23 weeks of pregnancy. The ballot measure in Ohio, a red state, was approved — marking the seventh straight victory for abortion rights in state referendums since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year. Ohio was the only state to consider a statewide abortion rights question this election cycle.
The state held a special election this past August, where voters weighed a separate proposal that would have required the threshold for voters to amend the state constitution to jump from a simple majority to 60%. The special election drew bipartisan criticism and came just months ahead of Tuesday’s vote. It ultimately proved unsuccessful.
The ballot’s passage has widespread implications. It has emboldened abortion rights advocates who are looking to put their own measures on the ballot in other states. Democrats are hoping that this result could serve as a litmus test and that increased support for abortion could translate into votes for Biden, a practicing Catholic who is also a strong abortion-rights supporter.
The Catholic Church spearheaded the move against the ballot’s passage, spending millions on the issue. On the Diocese of Cleveland's website, a link explaining its stance against the amendment was plastered on its homepage over the past few weeks.
2. War in Ukraine and Israel
While the Israeli-Hamas conflict and the war in Ukraine were not on any ballot, their ramifications impacted U.S. elections and will do so into the future. Only two House seats were up for grabs this election day, and the outcomes had no impact on who controls the chamber.
Nonetheless, it will remain a main issue as the presidential race draws near. Furthermore, 468 seats — 33 in the Democrat-led Senate and 435 in the GOP-led House — are up for grabs a year from now.
Incoming House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., defended his approach to redirect IRS funding to provide aid to Israel, saying Republicans are “trying to be good stewards of the taxpayer’s resources.”
“Instead of printing new dollars or borrowing it from another nation to send over to fulfill our obligations and help our ally, we want to pay for it — what a concept, we are trying to change how Washington works,” he said on “Fox News Sunday.”
Last week, House Republicans passed a $14.5 billion package to provide military aid to Israel. The vote came down mostly on party lines (the GOP holds just a nine-seat edge). But Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has called the plan “not serious,” and Biden has threatened to veto the bill.
This comes as the House voted late Tuesday to censure Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., for defending the Hamas attack against Israel as “resistance” and calling for the destruction of the Jewish state. The vote was moved up after Rep. Rich McCormick, R-Ga., who introduced the resolution, received death threats.
At the same time, the war between Israel and Hamas is also Johnson’s first big test as House speaker after the party ousted Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., as speaker. Johnson said he will turn next to aid for Ukraine and U.S. border security as Republican lawmakers increasingly oppose helping Kyiv fight Russia.
3. Youngkin’s 15-week abortion limit
In Virginia, Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin tried to give his party a model for a post-Roe political reality by backing a 15-week limit as a middle ground. At the same time, both chambers of Virginia’s state legislature seats were on the ballot.
Virginia is the southern-most U.S. state that has not either banned or restricted abortion since the Supreme Court’s ruling. Control of the state legislature — currently divided between Republicans and Democrats — could ultimately decide how abortion access is handled.
Prior to the vote, Youngkin called abortion “one of the most divisive topics across Virginia.”
Appearing on ABC’s "This Week” this past Sunday, Youngkin argued that his position to chart a new course for the GOP on this issue — what he called a “limit” on abortion access after 15 weeks with exceptions for rape, incest and saving the life of the mother — could serve as a compromise.
But Democrats maintained control of the state senate, winning a narrow majority that gives them the votes to continue blocking Youngkin’s agenda. In addition, Democrats also captured control of the House of Delegates, where the GOP had held a two-seat majority since 2021.
4. Kentucky governor’s race
In Kentucky, Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat running for reelection, focused his support for abortion rights — while also trumpeting the fruits of Biden’s economic policies without naming Biden.
It turned out to be a successful strategy as Beshear defeated his Republican challenger Daniel Cameron, the state’s attorney general. In his victory speech, Beshear, a Christian and son of former two-term Gov. Steve Beshear, quoted the Bible.
While a win for a Democrat in a red state could be seen as good for Biden, Beshear ran away from the sitting president. Beshear’s reelection in a state Biden lost by 26 points in 2020 happened in large part thanks to a unique brand he built in Kentucky, separate from the national party.
In the race’s closing stretch, the Beshear campaign focused its attacks against Cameron, specifically on issues such as health care and education. He went after Cameron, who was endorsed by Trump, and painted him as an anti-abortion extremist.
Kentucky has a near-total ban on abortion, which took effect last year after the Supreme Court overturned Roe. In response, an ad from Beshear’s campaign featured a young woman whose stepfather raped her when she was 12 years old.
“Anyone who believes there should be no exceptions for rape and incest could never understand what it’s like to stand in my shoes,” the woman said in the ad. “This is to you, Daniel Cameron: To tell a 12-year-old girl she must have the baby of her stepfather who raped her is unthinkable.”
5. School boards and the culture war
Conservatives and progressives once again ran against one another for school boards in suburban Philadelphia, Northern Virginia and in many other jurisdictions — with gender issues and Critical Race Theory the two main issues.
In Pella, Iowa, a suburb of Des Moines, a measure over whether the city council should be given more control over the public library was on the ballot after the library’s board had rejected an effort by some residents to ban the book “Gender Queer” by Maia Kobabe.
The measure, however, failed — by a margin of just 87 votes — and the library’s board maintained their independence.
Some have called these “manufactured outrages,” but religious conservatives, led by evangelicals and traditional Catholics, have teamed up with Muslim parents by banning LGBTQ flags and other diversity programs aimed at children.
Indeed, school boards have become the new front line of America’s culture wars. It has resulted in chaos since the pandemic, when many of these issues came to light. It will continue to be next year and beyond.
Original source for this Clemente Lisi think piece — Religion Unplugged.