The political recriminations will be flowing in coming weeks, months and years.
Why was the Joe Biden campaign effort so astonishingly (yes) "sleepy"? How could Donald Trump do so well when so many people kept telling pollsters they find him unnerving if not repellent, and bemoan his handling of the COVID-19 crisis? And speaking of polls, why did the nation’s elite media — once again — let them slant coverage, and can their distortions ever be remedied?
With control of the White House and U.S. Senate still undecided as this is written, The Religion Guy underscores a quote: "There's something going on out there that most of the media have been missing." That's from Jim VandeHei, the savvy co-founder of both Politico.com and then Axios.com, speaking on devoutly Democratic MSNBC Wednesday morning. He added, "Obviously Donald Trump and the Republicans are the big beneficiaries of that as we sit here today, even if Trump loses the presidency."
The Guy chimes in with the related observation that Democrats and sectors of the media continue to miss or misplay the religion factor in America’s cultural divide. This will require careful reconsideration following the recounts, legal games, Electoral College vote December 14 and state certifications of Senate winners.
Newswriters' analysis of religion and what happened should note data the experts at Pew Research Center posted October 26 and on October 13. Note well that Pew echoed many others in giving Biden a healthy 52- 42 margin over Trump among registered voters.
Pew found predictable pre-election enthusiasm for Democrat Biden among Black Protestants (by 90 percent), Jews (70 percent, though less among regular worshippers while the Orthodox minority leaned GOP), and Hispanic Catholics (67 percent, but hold that thought).
Then there's the big new constituency of "nones" with no religious identification (71 percent). That’s another theme GetReligion has been stressing for a decade. Democratic dependence on non-religious citizens presumably affects the party's lack of affinity for religious interests. The 2020 returns may tell reporters whether that is a mistake.
Trump's coalition per Pew consisted of white "evangelical" Protestants (78 percent support), non-evangelical white (i.e. "mainline") Protestants (53 percent) and white Catholics (52 percent). The Guy figured it would be hard for Trump to eke out a win unless he could do somewhat better with that last group. Repeat after me: Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
Another angle for journalistic examination is what's going on with Hispanics. They disappointed the Democrats, at least in southeast Florida. And GetReligion boss tmatt has been reminding us — for four years — that the growing number of Hispanic Protestants in places like Florida (and Texas) may be less Democratic than others. Did Catholic sensibility play into this?
Oh, and what about all those white evangelicals?
Despite a coterie of vocal Trump fans, most leaders typically avoid partisan chatter and the "Pro-Life Evangelicals for Biden" effort was led by evangelical elite retirees. The lineup included past presidents of Fuller, Gordon-Conwell and Westminster seminaries, of Eastern and Eastern Mennonite Universities, a Christianity Today magazine board chairman and InterVarsity Press publisher, pastors with the stature of Joel Hunter,and authors like Richard Foster. This aging evangelical establishment's concerns over racism, health care, poverty and climate change — in addition to religious liberty and life issues — differ profoundly from the evangelical rank and file. However, the narrow race in Georgia could end up going Biden’s way because of (wait for it) the flipped votes of more than a few evangelials?
VandeHei's remark brings to mind the outlook of an ardent conservative Catholic, Father Frank Pavone of Priests for Life. The day before Election Day, his Wall Street Journal op-ed contended that America is “at odds over the most fundamental principles of ideology, economics, religion, race, culture, morality -- even our own history." He cheered on President Trump for exposing the news media as "a belligerent in the culture war" rather than a neutral and reliable source of information. Whether or not Trump continues in office, he said, "the media will never again be able to convince the public that it is objective." That, of course, was one of the main concerns that led to GetReligion’s birth 17 years ago.
Even if President Trump were to exit January 20, he appears nearly certain to hover and dominate the Republican Party until it chooses its next presidential nominee in 2024, and that inevitably makes him a continuing player in U.S. religious dynamics. Such influence was absent with prior GOP losers Mitt Romney, John McCain, Bob Dole and Bush 41.