Surveys & polls

Plug-In: The top religion-beat stories of 2022? Here are some likely scenarios

Plug-In: The top religion-beat stories of 2022? Here are some likely scenarios

What stories will religion reporters be chasing in 2022?

Veteran Godbeat pro Kimberly Winston asked a handful of national journalists — myself included — that question on Interfaith Voices’Inspired” radio show.

“Every one of the reporters we asked had a different answer,” Winston noted.

That’s certainly true.

But a few common themes emerged.

The Washington Post’s Michelle Boorstein, The Conversation’s Kalpana Jain and I all mentioned abortion as the U.S. Supreme Court contemplates overturningor at least severely curtailing Roe v. Wade.

Other topics cited: the COVID-19’s pandemic ongoing impact on religion and the role of faith and Christian nationalism — so evident in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot — in the midterm elections.

The Los Angeles Times’ Jaweed Kaleem said he’ll be reporting on religious activism related to the climate and environment. Faithfully Magazine’s Nicola Menzie expects to keep monitoring issues of importance to Christian communities of color, such as mental health.

By the way, the 2022 question was just one part of a fascinating show in which Winston delved into how religion reporters get their stories.

I was truly captivated, except for the parts where I had to listen to my own voice. I’d highly recommend it.

Look for more predictions for the coming year — including a major global story — in this week’s Inside the Godbeat section.


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Two think pieces on changes in American religious life, with a few political twists

Two think pieces on changes in American religious life, with a few political twists

It’s time for another “think piece” weekend double-shot.

In other words, I want to point readers toward two different online features that, at first, may not seem to be related. However, when you look closer you can see the DNA that connects them.

The first is a blog post by my friend Rod “Live Not By Lies” Dreher, but I want readers to consider his post as a mere frame work around a blast of data from the Pew Research Center team. The headline on Dreher’s post states, once again, an old trend (think “Sheilaism”), but one that is being more — not less — important: “Christianity Declines — But Not ‘Spirituality’.”

Dreher points to this quotation from a recent Pew feature, which digs deeper into the center’s mine of religiously unaffiliated research:

The secularizing shifts evident in American society so far in the 21st century show no signs of slowing. The latest Pew Research Center survey of the religious composition of the United States finds the religiously unaffiliated share of the public is 6 percentage points higher than it was five years ago and 10 points higher than a decade ago.

Christians continue to make up a majority of the U.S. populace, but their share of the adult population is 12 points lower in 2021 than it was in 2011. In addition, the share of U.S. adults who say they pray on a daily basis has been trending downward, as has the share who say religion is “very important” in their lives.

Currently, about three-in-ten U.S. adults (29%) are religious “nones” — people who describe themselves as atheists, agnostics or “nothing in particular” when asked about their religious identity. Self-identified Christians of all varieties (including Protestants, Catholics, members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, and Orthodox Christians) make up 63% of the adult population. Christians now outnumber religious “nones” by a ratio of a little more than two-to-one. In 2007, when the Center began asking its current question about religious identity, Christians outnumbered “nones” by almost five-to-one (78% vs. 16%).

The recent declines within Christianity are concentrated among Protestants.

A trend this massive will affect almost every area of American life, including politics.


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Here we go again: With Catholic news, reporters should be careful with this word -- 'reform'

Here we go again: With Catholic news, reporters should be careful with this word -- 'reform'

Let’s pause for a moment and reconsider a very loaded and tricky word that shows up all the time religion-news coverage (as well as political coverage, of course).

That word is “reform.”

For really, really, loyal GetReligion readers, I will admit that I am, in part, flashing back to this 2008 GetReligion post: “Who gets to "reform" what?” Once again, let’s look at some of the language that shows up in online dictionaries when you search for that term. To “reform” an institution or a law means to:

* make changes for improvement in order to remove abuse and injustices; "reform a political system" * bring, lead, or force to abandon a wrong or evil course of life, conduct, and adopt a right one; "The Church reformed me"; "reform your conduct" ... * a change for the better as a result of correcting abuses; "justice was for sale before the reform of the law courts" ... * improve by alteration or correction of errors or defects and put into a better condition; "reform the health system in this country" * a campaign aimed to correct abuses or malpractices. ...

The key words in that digital cloud are these: “improve by alteration or correction of errors or defects …”

Also, let me remind readers that I am not a Roman Catholic. Some people seem to be confused about that. My views on this topic are based on decades of reporting (and a graduate-school readings class focusing on the church before and after Vatican II) about the very complex world of Catholic life and thought.

With that in mind, let’s look at the top of a recent Religion News Service story that ran with this headline: “Can Pope Francis make real change for women? Vatican women leaders assess his chances.

VATICAN CITY (RNS) — A panel of women who have attained leadership positions in the Catholic Church met … to discuss Pope Francis’ ambitious plan to reform the power structures in the church, raising questions about female ordination, the role of bishops and the need for women theologians.


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New podcast: Top Godbeat story of 2021? Look for Jan. 6 religion hooks (#DUH)

New podcast: Top Godbeat story of 2021? Look for Jan. 6 religion hooks (#DUH)

beat stories.

Trust me, I understand that preparing the ballot for this poll is a thankless job. One of the hardest tasks is finding a way to describe some of the broader trends during any given year. It’s easier — most of the time — to describe singular events.

During this week’s “Crossroads” podcast (CLICK HERE to tune that in), host Todd Wilken asked me to describe some of the patterns that I have seen in the RNA poll results through the decades.

Trend No. 1 is clear: Name the biggest political story of the year and look for a religion angle. After all, politics is the true religion of many folks who run newsrooms.

Trend No. 2 works about 76% of the time: What did the pope do this year, especially if it has any implications for U.S. political fights over moral and social issues (see trend No. 1).

Trend No. 3 comes and goes: What did liberal leaders of the Seven Sisters of Mainline Protestantism proclaim about sex and did it cause new revolts that might split their churches? Every now and then, the Southern Baptists slip in with battles over sex, race or politics (newsworthy topics, in other words).

In light of these trends, it was easy to predict that the RNA poll’s top story for 2021 would be:

Religion features prominently during the Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol by pro-Trump insurrectionists. Some voice Christian prayers, while others display Christian or pagan symbols and slogans inside and outside the Capitol.

That’s actually a careful wording and, in particular, note that the RNA leaders refrained (this must have been hard) from including a reference to “white evangelicals.”

The key, in this description, is the tension between “prominently” and “some,” as in the folks saying “Christian” prayers. It’s safe to assume that this is the rebel that they had in mind (as quoted in one of my “On Religion” columns):


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Religion's impact on global migrant crisis: RNS concludes that it's Gordian Knot complicated

Religion's impact on global migrant crisis: RNS concludes that it's Gordian Knot complicated

Globalization has been a decidedly mixed bag.

On the plus side, it’s managed to knit diverse people together economically and, to a lesser degree, culturally. But it’s also further divided others along religious, political, race, and class lines.

It’s introduced us to a myriad of once exotic consumer products at relatively cheaper prices (cheaper for many Westerners, that is). Globalization has also brought us fresh ideas and life choices that — while I certainly don’t agree with every new view put forth — has enormously enriched my own life experience.

On the negative side — and this is huge — it’s allowed multi-national corporate boards (and shareholders) to escape the full weight of responsibility for the enormous environmental degradation their decisions have produced in exploited regions thousands of miles distant from their posh corporate headquarters.

Also, let’s not forget the foreign workers, including child laborers, exploited by unscrupulous employers trying to satisfy their Western customers insatiable demands for rock bottom prices.

For the United States and other Western nations, globalization’s complex outcomes has produced still another key Gordian Knot dilemma. I’m referring to the vast numbers of desperate human refugees heading, most often without proper documentation, to the United States, Europe, Australia — and even to neighboring countries that may be only relatively better off.

The latter group includes situations American news media rarely cover. They include Nicaraguans fleeing to Costa Rica and South Africa’s burgeoning refugee population comprised of hopeful immigrants from a variety of sub-Saharan African nations.

Is it any surprise to anyone with a working knowledge of Homo sapiens that we demand globalization’s creature comforts without us wanting to deal with those actual Homo sapiens that globalization has negatively impacted.


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Yet another theodicy news story: Where was God in the Mayfield tornado disaster?

Yet another theodicy news story: Where was God in the Mayfield tornado disaster?

Words fail to convey the emotions in Mayfield, Kentucky, after last weekend’s devastating tornado.

Let’s try anyway, directly from the mouths of those relying on their faith in the EF4 twister’s aftermath.

It’s another “theodicy” story: It would appear that God is on trial.

“My little girl asked me, ‘Why would God let this happen?’ … I had to look at my little 8-year-old girl, who looks to me for answers, and I had to say … ‘I don’t know. I don’t know.’” — the Rev. Wes Fowler, senior pastor of First Baptist Church in Mayfield (via Associated Press story by Holly Meyer)

"Thanks be to God the parts of the building that came down didn’t come down on us. I realized it might be the last few moments of my life on this earth. … All I care about is the fact that the most valuable possessions in my life, my wife’s life, my children, they’re all safe. Everything else is replaceable." — the Rev. Joey Reed, lead pastor of First United Methodist Church in Mayfield (via Louisville Courier-Journal story by Christopher Kuhagen)

"As a parent, it's like there's only so much you can say or do to take the fear out of your children. The girls' room was — I say 'was' because, obviously, if you come in here and look around, there's no walls anymore; there's no ceiling. I mean, they know how much of it's in our hands and how much of it's, you know, up to the storm and up to God. ... We lost everything, but we didn't lose everything. I mean, everything that we have that is worth anything was in that closet." — Joseph Tyler, Mayfield resident who survived with his family in the closet and worships at His House, a local church (via CNN story)

“God is not in the devastation. He’s not in the destruction. He was not in the storm. But he’s in the response, and that’s where we are. That’s what we’re trying to be. We’re trying to amplify the response that is happening from the survivors and victims of the tornado.” — Susan Montalvo-Gesser, director of Catholic Charities of the Diocese of Owensboro, Kentucky (via America magazine story by Michael J. O’Loughlin)

"It's awful. It's tragic. People who have lost loved ones, there is no way to take that pain away. I think you just have to embrace the pain and pray that God will guide you as you overcome it." — the Rev. Milton West, senior minister of First Christian Church in Mayfield (via WLKY story by Marvis Herring)


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So what is 'Christmas,' anyway? These days, Siri knows more than many believers

So what is 'Christmas,' anyway? These days, Siri knows more than many believers

This question rocks the Internet year after year: Is "Die Hard" a "Christmas movie"?

How about "Frosty the Snowman," "Home Alone," "Elf" or "A Bad Moms Christmas"? Is "A Christmas Story" really a "Christmas" story? What about those Hallmark Channel visions of romance, complicated families and wall-to-wall holiday decorations?

The answer to these questions, and many others, hinges on how Americans answer another question: What is "Christmas"?

Ask that question to an iPhone and Siri will quote Wikipedia: "Christmas is an annual festival commemorating the birth of Jesus Christ, observed primarily on December 25 as a religious and cultural celebration among billions of people around the world."

Most people know that much of the story, according to a new survey by Lifeway Research in Nashville. Nearly 75% of Americans say Jesus was born more than 2,000 years ago in Bethlehem and even more believe that Jesus is the Son of God the Father.

After that, things get fuzzy.

"Lots of people celebrate Christmas, but some have no interest in celebrating the birth of Jesus Christ," said Scott McConnell, executive director of Lifeway. "But even some of the people who do take the Christmas message seriously don't understand what it means. …

"This is a story that hasn't changed for 2,000 years, yet many people struggle to tell the story and get the details right. Many don't know why Jesus was born."


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Tops in religion for 2021: Gallup spotlights America's downward Church Lurch

Tops in religion for 2021: Gallup spotlights America's downward Church Lurch

As Religion News Association colleagues vote on the top stories of 2021, here's The Guy's own pick for first place: Gallup spotlights the great downward Church Lurch in 21st Century America.

The polling organization, which is unmatched for data on trends that span decades — including a steady barrage of questions about religion — marked the Easter and Passover seasons by announcing that only a minority of Americans report membership in a religious congregation any longer.

Yes, yet again we confront those religiously unaffiliated "nones,” “nothing in particulars” and the long-emerging flock often called “spiritual, but not religious.”

The much-buzzed-about poll report, full details here, said membership rates held remarkably steady from the 73% in Depression-era 1937, when the question was first asked, through 70% in 2000. But now, self-reported affiliation has plummeted to 47% -- and a mere 36% for younger Americans in the Millennial generation. Equally significant, a three-year aggregate of 6,000 respondents in 2018-2020 also gave membership minority status at 49%.

This slump drew attention from media that rarely mention much less cover religion substantively. Assessing the many reactions, GetReligion boss Mattingly's post back in April — “Thinking with two key Southern Baptists: Concerning those scary Gallup Poll numbers” — astutely focused on two pieces by Baylor historian Thomas Kidd and the Rev. Russell Moore, who was soon to quit as president of the Southern Baptist Convention's Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission. They analyzed Protestantism with little specific to Catholicism or other faiths. Links to both articles are included in Mattingly's post.

Note that responses in 2000 would not capture the potential negative impact of COVID-19 — which was hurting attendance and donations — on future membership counts.

So, what's happening?


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Plug-In: Americans favor religious exemptions for COVID-19 vaccine mandates — sort of

Plug-In: Americans favor religious exemptions for COVID-19 vaccine mandates — sort of

What a difference a year makes.

Or not.

Fifty-two weeks ago, this news topped Weekend Plug-in.

Sound familiar?

Trump calls COVID-19 vaccine ‘a medical miracle,’ but many religious people are skeptical

Guess what? Many religious people remain highly skeptical of the vaccines, despite their strong effectiveness at preventing serious illness, hospitalization and death from COVID-19.

Which leads us to this week’s news: a new public opinion poll on religious exemptions to the vaccines.

Religion News Service’s Jack Jenkins reports:

WASHINGTON (RNS) — A new poll reveals most Americans are in favor of offering religious exemptions for the COVID-19 vaccines, yet express concern that too many people are seeking such exemptions. In the same survey, more than half of those who refuse to get vaccinated say getting the shot goes against their personal faith.

The poll, conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute and Interfaith Youth Core and released Thursday (Dec. 9), investigated ongoing debates about COVID-19 vaccines as well as emerging divisions over whether religious exemptions to the shots should even exist.

According to the survey, a small majority (51%) of Americans favor allowing individuals who would otherwise be required to receive a COVID-19 vaccine to opt out if it violates their religious beliefs, compared with 47% who oppose such religious exemptions.

See additional coverage of the poll by the Washington Times’ Mark A. Kellner, a former contributor at GetReligion, and NPR’s Megan Myscofski.


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