While reading the voting breakdown of the New Hampshire primary, I noticed two trends among Catholics. One trend was that Hillary Clinton won a large plurality (44 percent) of those Catholics who voted in the Democratic primary. The other trend was that Mike Huckabee underperformed among those Catholics who voted in the Republican primary; he got 7 percent of the Catholic vote, compared to 11 percent overall.
Political analysts and strategists also noticed the trends. Jay Cost at Real Clear Politics wrote that Clinton won “decisively” among Catholics. Michael Barone noted that in the state’s 2000 and 2008 primaries, Catholics broke “heavily” for Gore and Clinton. Deal Hudson at Inside Catholic wrote that Huckabee “has not charmed Catholic voters,” noting that the former Arkansas governor made an appearance before an anti-Catholic evangelist preacher.
So how did reporters analyze the voting trends among Catholics? Did they view them as an embrace of Hillary Clinton and a rebuke of Huckabee?
Well, let me put it to you this way. If I were a novelist, the rest of my post would be filled with white space; if I were in charge of the sound system at a Led Zeppelin concert, the arena would be as silent as a Trappist monastery at midnight; if I were …
OK, you get the picture. No political reporter at a major newspaper — not a one of ‘em — wrote about how Catholics voted, let alone the two trends mentioned above. The New York Times didn’t write about Catholic voters. The Washington Post didn’t write about Catholic voters. The Chicago Tribune didn’t write about Catholic voters. The Boston Globe didn’t write about Catholic voters.
Well, one newspaper did write about Catholic voters, and that was the Associated Baptist Press. Its analysis of the Catholic vote was as follows:
McCain won far larger percentages of all Protestant and Catholic GOP voters than Huckabee.
So maybe reporters believe that there is no “Catholic vote.” Perhaps some recognize my byline and conclude, “Oh, this guy has a book out about the migration of Catholic voters away from the Democratic Party; no wonder he’s criticizing us.” I think both views are mistaken. For one thing, Catholics made up more than a third of voters in both parties’ primaries. For another thing, party strategists (here) recognize the importance of the Catholic vote.
Yes, there is a longstanding antipathy between intellectuals devoted to the Enlightenment and Catholics devoted to Rome. Yet magazine writers wrote about Catholic voting trends. So why don’t political reporters?
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Comments (24) |
January 11, 2008, at 6:37 pm
Really interesting, and worth pursuing.
But Catholics in NH are presumably Kennedy dems, to whom Hillary presents no problem.
That is simple math.
As for the incuriosity, weren’t the media so fixed on Romney’s losses and Huckabee’s gains—because of the ‘Evangelical vote’—that they used up all their interest in religion?
January 11, 2008, at 7:07 pm
Oddly, former Baptist minister Huckabee is the candidate who is the closest to Catholic moral teachings if you look at both social values and economic issues according to many Catholics in Arkansas.
In fact, according to one blog I read (maybe here) Huckabee recently looked across the room where much of his staff was working and told someone he had better start hiring some Baptists for most of the people in his campaign staff are Catholic.
You would think angles like this would be worth a story or two in the Mass Media. But, Egads!!!, that might help a candidate who is pro-life and pro-traditional marriage, as well as pro-working class and pro-helping the poor—and the liberal MSM doesn’t want to be caught seeming to promote such heresy against rigid liberal dogma which says a candidate must be 1,000% liberal on all issues.
January 11, 2008, at 8:05 pm
Amen, Deacon John, Amen.
January 11, 2008, at 8:22 pm
I’d love to see this reported on. I think there’s two main questions that need to be answered. The first is whether Catholics still vote in enough of a block to makeup “the Catholic vote” or not. The second, and possibly more interesting question, is whether the Catholic vote follows the teachings of the Church or not.
January 11, 2008, at 10:54 pm
The lack of coverage is indeed a mystery.
Here in New Hampshire, the Catholic vote is HUGE. So I was taken aback, and surprised, that Huckabee met with Pastor Hagee, who has been open in his disdain (hatred?) for Catholicism. Then again, Huckabee made several serious tactical errors before New Hampshire’s primary, among them was to over-emphasize his pastoral calling and conservative Christian roots. That didn’t sit well with the toughened, non-churchgoing Yankee stock in NH, many of whom don’t even go to church and those who do… well, they keep it to themselves. So going to one of our few evangelical-style churches and PREACHING on the Sunday before the election - about “joining God’s Army” no less - was not quite the wisest thing to do if you want to show you understand how to keep religion a PERSONAL faith that informs, but doesn’t control, your actions.
(As a political consultant, I’d have reminded Huckabee, if he’d asked me (!) that he chose a career path when he entered politics, and he abandoned the pastorate as a career, though obviously he hasn’t abandoned his Faith. Choosing to preach showed that he has ties to his former job, and while that’s fine, within reason, I’m willing to bet it turned off, confused, or confirmed the worst about him to many voters that he’s a modern-day William Jennings Bryan - or perhaps simply another Pat Robertson, who went nowhere politically after Iowa.)
I also agree that the Catholic vote is largely a “Ted Kennedy” bloc here. But I wonder if that’s because the Republican Party has simply failed to reach out to that voter bloc, based on social values issues? I didn’t see the Catholic vote courted by any of the GOP candidates in any real way here during the Primary Season.
January 12, 2008, at 12:17 am
I might be wrong but aren’t monasteries at midnight usually filled with the sounds of monks singing ancient prayers?
January 12, 2008, at 5:03 am
There’s a Republican Party in the Granite State? Since the death of Calvin Coolidge? In MA, Dems run unopposed. I seem to recall Romney won—the second time round—because the Dems ran such poor candidates even they couldn’t get elected.
Protestants—Stephen A—and their cult offshoots constantly inveigh against the RCC, about which they know nothing, and no more than the next guy does Huckabee have any control over the words and deeds of other Protestants.
Whereas Romney seems visited by fantasies of marching with M. L. K., Huckabee actually marched with Catholics in pro-life rallies in his home state. Whereas Romney presided over the first state to legalize same-sex marriage, Huckabee did no such thing: in his own words, “I support and have always supported passage of a federal constitutional amendment that defines marriage as a union between one man and one woman. As President, I will fight for passage of this amendment. My personal belief is that marriage is between one man and one woman, for life.”
As for casting highly imaginative aspersions on Huckabee, it might fool at least some in benighted and sparsely populated states like NH and Utah, but as for the states where people actually practice Catholicism untainted by political or cult waters, the message Huckabee sends is loud and clear. A staunch Christian, he upholds traditional Biblical morality.
Catholics are used to ignorant abuse spewed about their Church: it’s the hot air others need to blow to keep their own splintered and sinking ships afloat. The question for Catholic voters is whose character and record best reflect the one true holy and apostolic church.
Kudos to Mark Stricherz for uncovering what I hope he will be able to develop and publish.
January 12, 2008, at 7:59 am
It may also be for something rather prosaic:
The parish-based organization of Catholics makes the precincts relatively easy to track. The parish is often a neighborhood. Evangelicals, however, are more dispersed. And so because they are less visible, their importance rises, at least for tracking purposes. News-wise, there is something “hidden” here.
And while many Catholics vote Republican, it is the Evangelical community which brings the the volunteers and which more successfully reinforces or cooperates with the Republican agenda overall.
Lastly, there is also a different social sensibility between Catholics and Evangelicals. The Republican ethos is largely that of the Evangelical individualist in contrast to the more communitarian orientation of Catholic neighborhoods — Catholics may vote as staunch Republicans, but they don’t have the same cultural “feel” as brand name Republicanism. This is what makes Huckabee’s appeal to the working guy here in Michigan so interesting — that does have more of a culturally Catholic feel to it. With Tuesday’s Michigan primary and large Catholic populations in Macomb County, it may be worth tracking.
January 12, 2008, at 10:00 am
AFAIK, among Catholics, the only monastics in prayer at midnight are the Carthusians (who have a charterhouse in Vermont). The Trappists, at least in the U.S., tend to pray at 3 to 4am, with Genessee, NY starting at 2:25am. The Rule of St. Benedict specifies rising at 2am, and proceeding directly to the chapel, and that was Trappist practice until the past few decades. Also, it might be more accurate to say that monks are praying the psalms, not “ancient prayers”. I suppose that’s a quibble, though.
The joke, of course, is the hour of night coupled with the traditional Trappist discipline of silence. The writer did know that much about them.
January 12, 2008, at 11:36 am
Palladio, I guess you don’t dispute that Huckabee visited with a virulent anti-Catholic, huh? The company a politician keeps is a good indicator of what they believe. He got a free pass on that meeting, and wasn’t asked to renounce Hagee’s anti-Catholic views.
Please don’t misconstrue my comments. I like Hucakbee, but fear he has taken his “I’m an UberChristian” routine (welll, at least “I’m an UberProtestant”) to extremes, and that DID hurt him in NH, which is largely Catholic, and don’t you for a minute think it won’t hurt him in less “beknighted” states like New York, California and Illinois, all of which have large Catholic populations, too.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Catholicism_in_the_United_States#Roman_Catholicism_by_State
This paragraph was confusing. I hope you don’t think I was inveighing against the RCC because I was not. I was simply noting that Huckabee had made several missteps that cost him votes. And I hope you’re also not accusing me of being Protestant
January 12, 2008, at 4:24 pm
Matins AKA Vigils (after V II Office of Readings for secular priests) occurs in the middle of the night, but that does not mean our “midnight” of 12 AM.
Here’s the schedule of the Cistercians in Japan who rise at 3:00AM for a 3:45AM Vigils, the longest session of the Divine Office. So midnight would be very quiet indeed since they went to bed at 8 PM.
January 12, 2008, at 4:33 pm
Catholics are yesterday’s news. For the last few years the press has been obsessed with the rise and influence of Evangelicalism, and less so on Fundamentalism (the difference between them is a total mystery to most reporters anyway). So it is only natural that, short of talking about the latest sexual abuse, financial misappropriation, or Papal election, the press is more interested in and focused on Evangelicals. They are the most easily mustered voters and willing to get out and work for their causes. Catholics? Not really. The press realizes that there is more to life than one more anti-abortion protest.
January 12, 2008, at 6:01 pm
Whoever Huck visited with most people have no idea: never heard of the guy—he, not you, Stephen A, apparently talks trash about Catholics, rather like Jimmy Mac here in his post number 12.
On the other hand, you indict Huck with guilt by association. I suspect the so-called anti-Catholic kept his mouth shut. Maybe Huck’s affability and decency will rub off on him. It’s a Christian virtue to mingle with people of questionable character to change them.
My argument is that actions speak louder than words, association not at all: marching with pro-life Catholics in Arkansas cuts it with this Catholic. I think you mistake Huck’s appeal in the Northeast—which none of the northern New England States belongs to. No conservative Catholic with a voice not already beholden to certain interests—such as, well, I best not cast aspersions—takes issue with Huck and most outside of the establishment are slowly but surely learning to like him. A lot. It’s quite something, since he has so little money to spend.
Whether Huck lost votes in NH is, to me, a moot point, since it was a long shot at all events. Catholics there seem utterly of the Kennedy Dem type, and I, for one, know of no resurgence in tradition to stop that kind of dead-end, unCatholic thinking among Catholics.
Harris’s post (#8) I can quite believe and find brilliant: that’s why Catholics are today’s news, as Mark S has been sharp to point out to us, Catholic or no.
January 12, 2008, at 6:27 pm
Harris - is the parish system still intact outside of the southwest? Here in Texas, it’s pretty much go where you want. I sometimes joke that if they enforced parish boundaries, the parish would consist of me, Regina, and about 100 illegals from the night shelter. Even Father doesn’t live in the parish boundaries.
January 12, 2008, at 6:32 pm
Seeing Gov. Huck as a Traditional Catholic Type—the way mainstream Dems used to be- (pro-life, pro-traditional family, pro-working class and poor) became even more plausible according to a news story I saw today:: a second major labor union has endorsed Huckabee.
This Catholic deacon is liking Huckabee more and more.
January 12, 2008, at 11:13 pm
Ken — While parish boundaries are exact, they nonetheless do define neighborhoods. Thinking over the previous post, I would also note another reason why Catholics don’t track very well — indeed may not be trackable for the Republican primary:
The Catholic positions don’t line up with one key plank in most GOP platforms: immigration. Thus, I think that Catholics who do vote GOP will tend to look more like regular GOP members and not specifically as Catholics. Iow, the category doesn’t tell you a whole lot. In the general election, I can see this leading to a sharper question about which is more important, the pro-life or the pro-immigrant position. That may be an issue to watch.
January 13, 2008, at 7:07 am
To echo Deacon John, and contradict some who have so flatly and grossly equated Huck with evangelicals or Christian conservatives, read today’s NYT front page article on how Huck is splitting the base.
I pray he wins. If he does not, perhaps even a loss will spell the end of politics as usual on the right.
January 13, 2008, at 11:43 am
Ditto, Palladio and Deacon John, this Catholic sees Huck as a populist,i.e., a believer in, or advocate of the rights, wisdom, or virtues of the common people. Huck is 100% Pro Life, 100% for Judeo-Christian values of family and nation and, plays like Honest Abe Lincoln who doesn’t mind rubbing elbows with the common folk. Huck’s Hagee embrace was a tactical mistake, and I’m liking him a lot!
January 13, 2008, at 3:58 pm
Claiming Huckabee didn’t pander almost exclusively to evangelical protestants in Iowa is like claiming Hillary REALLY IS a conservative. Deny it if you want, but it’s true.
Meeting with that anti-Catholic, Christian Zionist Hagee was, as Joseph noted correctly, a tactical mistake. That’s all I was saying.
He does have many positive attributes he can share with Catholics, including liberal ones who are pro-union.
January 13, 2008, at 5:03 pm
Stephen A., no doubt you have more evidence than I have, and as such, please produce it as to the great win in Iowa.
However, if Huck is for the sake of argument an evangelical protestant in the first place, is pandering exactly the right word? Isn’t he preaching to the converted? Getting out the message to the faithful? Sharing the good news?
I like Huck. He’s a great choice, if he can win the nomination.
January 13, 2008, at 7:20 pm
Varia
I’m slowly getting back in oscillationem rerum with Latin. The grammatical concepts are all more or less there, it’s just little things like, oh, vocabulary and the whole freakin’ verb system I have to cram back into my head. Optare, …
January 13, 2008, at 7:46 pm
I am so afraid that the next 12 months are going to bring nothing but endless “religion and the campaign trail” stories. Surely there is more to religion in America than electoral politics.
January 14, 2008, at 11:35 am
[…] – Secondly, being raised a heathen papist, I’m always interested in the Catholic vote. GetReligion duly notes often that this contingency overlooked by the general media (and public). As I’ve discussed previously in another space, Catholics look to the Vatican for guidance on electoral matters (or perhaps more appropriately, the Vatican runs its mouth and “requires” the masses to follow), and in many cases, it’s difficult for there to be a candidate that perfectly fits the dogmatic requirements. […]
January 14, 2008, at 7:39 pm
The evidence for Whom Huckabee is pandering to - I mean preaching to - is clear. He was successful by aiming only at Christian voters in Iowa, but wildly unsuccessful in New Hampshire, where Christians are more liberal or simply more reserved about their faith.
Preaching every Sunday in Iowa worked great. Preaching the Sunday before the NH Primary was seen by those I was around up here as a mistake that underined his faith to the exclusion of his political career choice. Preaching in SC yesterday though may very well prove a brilliant move to drive home his evangelical bone fides there.
It’s all a matter of how these campaign tactics are employed, and yes, they’re tactics.
And yes, it seems plausible that an evangelical Christian can win the GOP nomination.