If you follow political scientist Ryan Burge on Twitter (which you should do, of course), then you know that he sends out waves of poll information, creatively sifted, in the form of charts.
From time to time, people have been known to bounce questions back to him, seeking clarification or more specific numbers on some strange angle of the topic at hand. I confess that I have been known to do that.
Burge is relentlessly helpful in that online setting. However — imagine this — there are people who argue with him? On Twitter, of all places! Some disagree with his interpretations. On Twitter!
I’m being sarcastic, to make a point linked to this weekend’s pair of “think pieces.” I’m one of those guys who disagrees with Burge from time to time. That happens, when someone is delivering and then interpretting lots of information in a public forum. The difference with Burge is that he is relentlessly candid, even when dealing with numbers and trends that challenge lots of common news templates.
Recently, Burge wrote a commentary piece — backed with some of his charts — for Religion News Service, flashing back to some polling from 2018. The piece ran with this double-decker headline:
Abortion just isn’t the motivating issue for evangelicals it once was
Studies show white evangelicals, by and large, do not have a hard-line approach to abortion — other issues like immigration and race are taking priority over advocating for the unborn.
Whatever your stance on “life” issues, don’t you want to read more about that claim? Here is a key (and quite long) section of that:
When one takes a look at polling around abortion, it’s clear advocating for the unborn is not the motivating issue it appears to be. In fact, according to data from the Public Religion Research Institute, there’s ample reason to believe large numbers of white evangelicals don’t place a great deal of importance on abortion and don’t think it’s likely it will ever be outlawed in the United States.
The PRRI poll … asked about abortion from several angles. The Association of Religion Data Archives also provides a measurement wizard to other abortion questions here. One battery of questions asked respondents how they would prioritize a number of important problems in the United States. Among white evangelicals, nearly 40% said reducing health care costs should be a top priority, while nearly the same percentage emphasized reducing the deficit. About a third wanted the government to address the opioid epidemic, and 32% wanted immigration reform to be a top priority. However, just 30% said enacting anti-abortion laws should take precedent, and an even larger share of white evangelicals (33%) said abortion should be a lower priority in 2018.
PRRI also asked about abortion and support for candidates more directly. Specifically, they asked a question that probed whether the issue of abortion was a dealbreaker for supporting a candidate. Among white evangelicals, just a quarter of them indicated they would only vote for candidates who shared their views on abortion, while just over half said abortion was one of many factors that weighed on their decision-making process. Nearly as many white evangelicals said abortion was not a major consideration on election day as those who said it was a dealbreaker.
Looming in the background, of course, is Donald Trump and all of the coverage of the white evangelical Protestants who — to varying degrees — supported him. You can put Supreme Court nominations and other familiar topics in there, as well.
Now, regular GetReligion readers may know that I am convinced that “evangelicals” — however one defines that near-curse word these days — are divided when it comes to thinking about all kinds of things (COVID-19 vaccines leap to mind). Burge is also one of many who are noting the clear signs that lots of evangelicals are simply ordinary Republicans, at this point in the game. They vote for Republicans.
But this article’s take on abortion and conservative voters is one with which some people (like me) will want argue about or probe for clarification.
Burge sent me this Religion Dispatches piece by Bradley Onishi as part of this discussion: “Is abortion no longer significant for evangelicals — or has it just become like water?”
That reference to “the water” refers to a classic concept in mass-communication theory. Some say it’s an old Chinese proverb, but the most famous quote is from Marshall McLuhan:
“One thing about which fish know exactly nothing is water, since they have no anti-environment which would enable them to perceive the element they live in.” — Marshall McLuhan, War & Peace in the Global Village (1968)
This brings us back to the Onishi essay. The big question: Maybe abortion has become an issue that, for various kinds of religious conservatives, has become the water in which they swim. The issue is soaked into many others and, for pollsters, it’s now hard to determine its power.
Many in the GOP clearly know this:
White evangelicals make up one-third of the GOP. The GOP is notoriously probing when it comes to gauging their bases’ priorities and desires. If abortion isn’t much of a motivation anymore, why has this been a record-breaking year for anti-abortion legislation? Why the typical attack lines against the likes of Warnock and Biden on their pro-choice stances? One would have to believe that Republican research, communications, and outreach are all woefully off base concerning the party’s most cherished and loyal constituency.
Asking white evangelicals about abortion in 2018 may have been like asking vacationers how important it would be for a fancy resort to provide running water in all their rooms. Most would assume that such establishments would provide this amenity by default. Thus, when asked if it were a priority over, say, a private hot tub or an ocean view, the former may not show up at the top of the list for everyone surveyed.
Or, to put it in political terms: Asking white evangelicals about abortion in 2018 might be akin to asking progressives in solidly blue districts about affirming LGBT rights in 2021. It’s hard to imagine any candidate gaining traction without baseline support for queer rights. It’s assumed, and therefore not something that might appear as a felt need on a ranked political survey or as the single issue that would determine support for a candidate.
If your writing and reading includes a strong interest in religion and politics, you are going to need to read both of these “think pieces.”
FIRST IMAGE: Photo posted at PetHelpful.com